737 Max

Boeing has predicted that airlines, lessors and freight firms will need 35,280 passenger aeroplanes valued at $4.8tn over the next two decades.

In its latest current market outlook (CMO), the company raised its previous 20-year forecast for commercial jet demand by 3.8%.

Boeing analysts believe the global aircraft fleet will double over the next 20 years and expects passenger and cargo traffic to grow by 5% annually.

Boeing sees the single-aisle market, which is served by the Next-Generation 737 and the 737 MAX airliners, as the primary driver of the forecast.

In this segment, there will be a demand for about 24,670 new aeroplanes worth $2.29tn due to the growth of low-cost carriers and airlines from emerging markets, the company said.

The wide-body jetliner segment, which includes Boeing’s 747-8, 777 and 787 Dreamliner, is forecast to have a demand for 8,590 new aeroplanes, which will be partly driven by airlines replacing their ageing fleets with new, more fuel-efficient jetliners.

According to Boeing, the demand for new airliners will continue to become more geographically balanced during the period with Asia Pacific nations, including China, leading the total aircraft deliveries.

Asia-Pacific will take delivery of 12,820 aircraft, followed by Europe with 7,460, North America with 7,250, Latin America with 2,900, the Middle East with 2,610, C.I.S. with 1,170, and 1,070 in Africa.

"These trends will shape market demand for airplanes that have highly efficiency, low operating costs, environmentally progressive technologies and a great passenger experience."

Boeing Commercial Airplanes marketing vice-president Randy Tinseth said that this forecast gives the company confidence as it ramps up production rates and invest in new products such as the 777X and 787-10X.

"Our customers are focused on growing their networks, managing their capacity and investing in new fleets," he said

"These trends will shape market demand for airplanes that have highly efficiency, low operating costs, environmentally progressive technologies and a great passenger experience."

The Boeing’s forecast reflects strong demand for 150-seat medium-haul airliners such as Boeing 737 and Airbus A320, where there is a competition from domestic aircraft manufacturers in Canada, China and Russia.

Of the total fleet in 2032, 41% will be replacement jets for ageing aircraft; 59% will demonstrate growth in air travel demand and around 6,000 will be in-service aeroplanes.

Image: Boeing’s forecast reflects strong demand for 150-seat medium-haul airliners such as Boeing 737. Photo: courtesy of Boeing.

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