aeroplane

Demand for new aircraft in China in the next 20 years will be much more than Boeing’s forecast of around 6,000 aircraft, according to estimates from the International Bureau of Aviation (IBA) in Beijing.

The aviation consultants said that the demand estimate is too conservative, adding that the prediction must consider the diversifying economy, as well as revised government policies.

The new regulations encourage promoting airline traffic, particularly of the low-cost airlines and the Western regions of China, IBA said.

IBA China regional director David Yu said: "Whilst the new policies will stimulate growth throughout the region, it is also important to consider that over 900 aircraft are expected to be retired over this period.

"The Chinese aviation sector will need financing, so lenders, lessors and export credit agencies will seek asset management and advisory services to protect their exposure."

"According to JetData, IBA’s commercial aircraft database, the current Chinese fleet is composed of over 2,400 aircraft, with an average age of 7.8 years.

"At present, 34% of the current fleet is on lease."

Backlog in aircraft orders in China include 42 A320 family aircraft, 35 A330s, 24 A350s, 87 737 family aircraft, six 747s, 50 777s and 22 787s,

The outstanding backlog and the predicted aviation industry growth are expected to drive supply chain opportunities for local aircraft leasing companies, IBA said.

IBA commercial director Owen Geach said: "The Chinese Government and many leading operators are engaging with expert advisors who have experienced the complex organisational and financial structures that such fast growth demands.

"The Chinese aviation sector will need financing, so lenders, lessors and export credit agencies will seek asset management and advisory services to protect their exposure."


Image: IBA said that Boeing’s estimate on aircraft deliveries to China is too conservative. Photo: courtesy of Suzanne T.

Defence Technology