ADS revises forecast for 2019 deliveries to 1,164 aircraft

UK-based aerospace trade organisation ADS has revised its forecast for 2019 deliveries for a second time to a new total of 1,164 aircraft.

At the beginning of this year, ADS estimated a buoyant outlook, stating that the aircraft manufacturers, Boeing and Airbus would together deliver 1,709 aircraft in 2019, beating the total of 1,618 aircraft last year.

In July, however, the trade body had reduced its forecast to 1,489 commercial aircraft shipments due to the dismal first-half performance.

ADS stated: “The rate of aircraft delivery in the first three-quarters of this year is the slowest since 2012, as the eight consecutive years of record growth from 2011 to 2018 look set to come to an end.”

Although the rate of aircraft delivery is significantly slower than expected at the beginning of this year, deliveries made this year so far are valued at £22bn to the UK industry.

Approximately 300 wide-body aircraft deliveries contribute to 75% of this total value.

Even though several factors are impacting the industry, the backlog of aircraft orders remains high at 13,695.

ADS chief executive Paul Everitt said: “While global deliveries this year are slower than originally expected, there remains strong international demand for modern, fuel-efficient aircraft and we expect record production rates to return in the years ahead.

“Aerospace businesses in the UK have a fantastic opportunity to develop and manufacture the next-generation technologies that are set to help the industry play its part in achieving ambitious emissions reduction targets.

“This can bring increasing prosperity to communities across the country and tackle the global challenge of climate change if UK aerospace remains attractive to investment and the home of innovation.

ADS also stated that the UK government needs to prioritise its relationship with the EU to preserve frictionless trade and regulatory alignment so that the industry can achieve its annual value to the UK of £36bn.