Though GlobalData’s poll is global, the UK easing quarantine restrictions for many countries today will renew focus is on what recovery of the civil aviation sector will look like. The expectation of a bounce-back akin to those experienced after previous crises is misplaced, according to GlobalData analysis and polls.

The recovery of the market from the Covid-19 crisis will be prolonged, not least because of the limbo generated by a lack of a clear resolution (such as a vaccine). The absence of a clear resolution along with varying localised quarantines and lockdowns mean that recovery cannot commence in earnest. The duration of the trough means we are past the point of elasticity in cash flow terms for many in the civil aviation sector (such as many airlines), with a complex recovery along a shallow slope to follow in the future.

GlobalData polling has shown that 45% of respondents agree with this recovery pattern, with 28% believing an L shaped recovery will occur. The suggestion is therefore that the combined 73% of respondents agreed that the civil aviation sector will experience a recovery pattern atypical of a crisis event recovery in this market.

In addition, 27% of respondents predicting a v-shaped recovery can be accounted for by the recovery patterns of particular segments within the niche, such as cargo aviation or business jets. GlobalData’s “COVID-19 – Sector Impact Analysis – Business Jets” report found that business jets will recover in a pattern that diverges from the overall civil aviation sector for a number of reasons, such as the inherent limitations on impact from the commercial passenger market. In the segment of cargo aircraft, some passenger aircraft were repurposed for cargo flights through the crisis due to the segment’s limited impact from quarantine and lockdowns affecting passenger markets, an indication of diverging impact levels.

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