Avolon predicts Chinese airlines to require 3,200 additional aircraft by 2026


Ireland-based aircraft leasing company Avolon has forecasted that Chinese airlines will need 3,200 additional aircraft by 2026.

More than 50% of the predicted aircraft are yet to be ordered. The prediction include 1,150 narrow body, 400 wide body and 150 regional jets.

The forcast was made as part of the second phase of Avolon ‘The Land of Silk and Money’ white paper series that analyses the Chinese aviation market.

China’s international inbound and outbound travel markets were analysed to give the newly announced forecast. First part of the series was issued in March.

Avolon strategy head and the study author Dick Forsberg said: “This is the second part of our analysis of the Chinese aviation market, consistent with our Thought Leadership agenda which focuses on the fundamental issues facing the aviation industry.

“China offers an attractive long-term growth opportunity for domestic and international airlines, aircraft OEMs, and aircraft leasing companies. Competition for airlines is likely to be intense as Chinese airlines focus on capturing their growth potential while being challenged by international carriers.

“There is also great potential for OEMs and lessors to capitalise on the under-ordered position of the Chinese industry, particularly in the widebody segment of the market.”

According to Avolon’s newly released white paper on the Chinese aviation sector, the country currently has a mixed fleet of 2,800 passenger aircraft in service.

"Competition for airlines is likely to be intense as Chinese airlines focus on capturing their growth potential while being challenged by international carriers."

Representing 13% of the world fleet, China’s current aircraft fleet has been growing by 11% a year since 2010.

The report also noted that the fleet has a high narrowbody content compared to the average for the rest of the world, and Chinese airlines are correspondingly under-resourced in wide body aircraft.

Among other estimates, the report further said that China’s international passenger numbers are predicted to increase by 8.9% per annum over the next decade, with growth for Chinese airlines averaging 11.7% per annum.