Airbus predicts $5.3tn aircraft demand by 2036


Airbus has predicted that the world will require 35,000 new jets, collectively worth $5.3tn, over the next two decades.

Of the new requirement, 34,170 will be passenger jets and 730 will be freighter aircraft.

More than 70% of the new aircraft will be single-aisle, with 60% for growth and 40% for replacing less fuel-efficient aircraft.

According to Airbus, the projected growth will be driven by increased numbers of first-time flyers, rising disposable income spent on air travel, expanding tourism, industry liberalisation, new routes and evolving airline business models.

Made in the Airbus’ new Global Market Forecast 2017-2036, the prediction also stated that air traffic is set to grow at 4.4% per annum over the next 20 years, leading to a global passenger aircraft fleet of more than 40,000 planes.

“Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years."

The estimated growth will also pave way for 530,000 new pilots and 550,000 new maintenance engineers, as well as facilitate expansion of Airbus’ global services business.

The company has already expanded its global network of training locations from five to 16 over three years.

The company further noted in its latest forecast that emerging markets, including China, India, the rest of Asia and Latin America, are currently witnessing the highest growth in air traffic.

Growth in these markets is estimated to be almost double than the 3.2% annual growth forecast in mature markets such as North America and Western Europe.

Airbus Commercial Aircraft Customers chief operating officer John Leahy said: “Air travel is remarkably resilient to external shocks and doubles every 15 years.

“Asia Pacific continues to be an engine for growth, with domestic China to become the world’s largest market.

“Disposable incomes are growing and in emerging economies, the number of people taking a flight will nearly triple between now and 2036.”

Airbus also forecasted that over the next 20 years, Asia Pacific is expected to take 41% of new deliveries, followed by Europe with 20% and North America at 16%.

The company further said that the twin-aisle aircraft segment will require 10,100 aircraft valued at $2.9tn, while the single-aisle segment will see the requirement for nearly 24,810 aircraft worth $2.4tn.


Image: A clear sky. Photo: courtesy of Airbus.